Would Kashmir be an indipendent country

Let’s see if an independent J&K can be a viable entity. People especially in the Kashmir Valley have been provided for the last 70 years hundreds of thousands of crores in subsidised cheap food (perhaps cheapest in the world), subsidised firewood, subsidised salts, subsidised pesticides for orchards, subsidised agricultural pursuits, cheaper feeds for animals, liberal loans for training in professional colleges outside the state (never returned), huge subsidies for establishment of industrial units, liberal loans for housing and so on. There is hardly any sphere of life where people of Kashmir did not get preferential treatment. The population of the state is just 0.4% of the country yet it received 2.7% of the national development outlay. Five Year Plans were being totally financed by the Centre, as also assistance for staff salaries. While in other parts of the country various states are getting central assistance as 30 percent grants and 70 percent loans, Jammu and Kashmir is among the most favoured parts where Central assistance is being given as 90 percent grants and 10 percent as loan. In the country as a whole, over 15 percent people are homeless but in Kashmir Valley every family has got a ‘pucca’ house of its own. Such huge sums of money have been pumped into the Kashmir Valley to the neglect of other two regions of Jammu and Ladakh during all these years that they have resulted in regional imbalances and regional tension within the state. Massive loans taken from financial institutions have not been returned. Few taxes or Government dues are paid in the Valley. Electricity charges, water bills, telephone bills, sales tax bills, sales tax, excise duty - nothing is paid as share to the Central Government. Now, if some pro Pak misguided Kasmiris like SAS Gilani and Co of the Hurriyat want ‘independence’, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure out the devastating financial effect on Kashmir and Kashmiris and their quality of life. Kashmiris who insist on independence or a merger with Pakistan must ask themselves whether they are better off in India? There would be no more freebies and subsidies. The crutches that they are so used to will be gone resulting in the further disintegration of the state due to civil unrest and discontent. Let’s get into the brass tacks to see if an Independent J&K would be viable or not. Firstly, even if India and Pakistan both granted independence to their portions of Kashmir, and the two portions merged, what would happen to the religious and sectarian minorities- the Hindus, Christians, Buddhists and Shia- within the state? Despite their demands for self-determination, Kashmiri Muslim political activists, let alone their insurgent counterparts, have never agreed to protect the rights of such nested minorities. Second, there’s little reason to believe such an entity would be economically viable. Kashmir is indeed a land of spectacular beauty and a tourist haven. However, tourism and agriculture alone would not be able to provide for the economic needs of the population. Before long it would prove to be yet another ward of the international community. Investors would think twice before investing in a land-locked country. Independence doesn’t guarantee economic prosperity. Thus, there won’t be enough money available to sustain a government in Kashmir and have enough funds for education, infrastructure, healthcare, defense, etc. It would not be able to fund such projects with the limited sources of income without running up monstrous debts which would quickly cripple the economy of the nation, scaring away investors, resulting in perpetual poverty, and finally in a collapse. Third, it is far from clear that if India chose to walk away from the portion of Kashmir that it controls, Pakistan would readily follow suit. Beset with sectarian, class and regional strife, Islamabad would be loath to dispense with a significant part of its country. Indeed Pakistan-controlled Kashmir’s exit could easily trigger a series of demands for secession elsewhere, particularly Balochistan and Sindh, thereby threatening to unravel an already fragile social fabric in Pakistan. Fourth, China will probably smell an opportunity here and try and convert this new country into another autonomous region of China like the TAR (Tibetan Autonomous Region) by pumping in funds and resources. After all, it has a huge strategic and economic interest in Gilgit/Baltistan through which the $65 billion CPEC runs. China is already heading stealthily towards its ambitious plan to safeguard its Persian Gulf route through Kashmir, which would also get a potential naval base in the Arabian Sea at Gwadar, linked by road to its eastern Xinjiang province. Fifth, independence doesn’t guarantee stability or safety. Sixth, a predominantly Muslim nation could fall prey to an extreme form of Islam based on strict Sharia Law like the TTP/ISIS aim to establish. Their gradual influence in a new sovereign state of Kashmir would be a real possibility and a clear danger to the region. Religious extremism is already gaining roots in Kashmir today. Seventh, how would the country even generate income in an area that has no resources? India doles out to Kashmir, on an average of nearly Rs 80,000 crores or $12 billion every year in the form of subsidies, grants, aid and infrastructure. If this ceases, Kashmir would sink faster than the Titanic. Which country will provide them the necessary funds to keep afloat? None. Eighth, how would they find resources for raising an army for internal as well as external threats? A minimum of two divisions would be required and probably an indep armored brigade for the defence of an independent Kashmir. Cost? At least $10 billion! Where is the money? Or where would it come from? And needless to say, maintaining such a force will not be chicken feed. So back to your question: Can Kashmir exist as an independent state? And the answer is a resounding NO! An independent J&K is not a viable option. Period!